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Daily Blog

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Right from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.” We are still in a state where the market wants to see inflation at least rise to 2%, likewise for the U.S. Federal Reserve. But as market cognoscenti say “You can’t put lipstick on a pig.” The headlines say October “PPI Jumps” and “Big Gains for U.S. PPI,” but on closer inspection it is just a reversal of September’s dismal readings, with YoY readings well below 2% at 1.6% for the core PPI. Meanwhile, the market has voted accordingly, with the U.S ten year yield summarily plummeting to 1.83%.

Please follow “Fed Funds Target Rates and U.S. Treasury Yields,” on page 15 of the Voya Global Perspectives book.

Weekly Commentary & Statistics

Monday, November 11, 2019

Global stock markets delivered positive results for the week. Positive trade news, upbeat third-quarter earnings and continuing job strength boosted optimism about economic growth.

Quarterly Commentary & Outlook

October 2019

The gathering storm clouds that first began forming across Europe, and then China are now developing over the U.S. In Europe, it seems imminent that the third quarter will signal a recession; China has its hands full with the U.S. supply chain; and the U.S. suffered a substantial negative surprise in its very important manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the consumer sector continues unabated and corporate earnings are still reaching record highs. Right now though, markets are focused on the impending storm.

  • Markets are fixated on the gathering storm clouds over Europe, China and now the U.S.
  • Meanwhile, consumer growth advancing unabated and corporate earnings still setting record highs
  • A close look at “Big 3” (Europe, China and the U.S.) manufacturing can provide a vivid picture of their respective outlooks for the global economy and future corporate earnings
  • Despite manufacturing woes, the U.S. consumer’s exorbitant strength is stepping into the void
  • While investors see constant negative headlines, the market keeps challenging all-time record highs

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