November Data - An Early Gift

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The 3% growth rate of the past two quarters seems to be continuing. The NY Fed Q4 Nowcast is expecting near 4% real GDP growth, while the Atlanta Fed GDP Now is looking for 3.2% growth. The St. Louis Fed Economic News Index of Real GDP is clocking in at 3.1%. And the PMI data shows good growth as well. The November ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.2 with the Overall Index at 53.8, up a trick from October. Importantly, the New Orders component is at 64 with the 12-month moving average at 62 – the highest rate in over a decade.
Plus, the synchronized e global rebound can clearly be seen in the current level of PMIs and the on-going rise from mid-2016. Right now, basically no major country has a sub-50 reading compared with seven countries below 50 in May 2016. The big engines of global growth – The Eurozone, U.S. and UK are all printing results around 60, with Germany at the head of the league table at 62.5. Today is St. Nicholas day, the traditional day in Europe for gift giving. The round-up of November data looks like a very satisfying present. Please see page 9 of the Global Perspectives™ book.

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