Debby Downer Calls in Sick

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After weeks of market ups and downs, risk assessment, risk reassessment and risk re-reassessment, I declare this last day of the quarter and the start of the holiday weekend to be No Bad News Day.

  • Last week initial U.S. jobless claims declined by 12,000 to 215,000, the lowest level since 1973
  • The economy added 313K jobs last month and the labor market is so red hot, it is starting to draw back some of the 95 million Americans not in the labor force
  • The U.S. and South Korea have negotiated a new trade pact which will notably benefit U.S. auto makers
  • Geopolitical risk has come down. North Korea has become chatty – meeting with China and scheduling potential summits and talks with Japan, South Korea and the U.S.
  • March consumer sentiment surged to 101.4, the highest level since 2004, despite concerns about trade, tariffs, and volatility
  • Durable goods orders jumped 3.1% in February, an indication of a brewing investment boom
  • GDP for Q4 was revised up to 2.9%, confirmation of the robust growth unleashed by the tax cuts and a precursor of the higher growth to come
  • Personal incomes were up .4% again for the third month in a row as wages and salaries increased .5% over last month
  • Q1 earnings reports begin in a few weeks and expectations are for more than 17% growth

Please take a look at slide 6 of the Global Perspectives Book. Fundamentals drive markets and those fundamentals sure look good.

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