The Great Financial Crisis Had a “Canary in the Coal Mine” That Fed Officials Should Have Paid Attention To

Main content

On the 10-year anniversary of the great financial crisis and the 9/15/2008 Lehman collapse, financial officials are defending the actions of the government post Lehman as necessary in making sure a very bad situation did not get even worse. True enough. It is hard and unfair to judge programs like TARP when the extent of the potential downturn if no action was taken cannot be accurately measured. However, most economists note that the cracks in the financial system began to show six months earlier with Bear Stearns and even so, no one could really see such a disaster coming. Not so fast, Speedy. It was actually in the third quarter of 2007 when corporate earnings growth started rolling over. Companies made less in the third quarter of 2007 than the third quarter of 2006. If investors thought this was a one-off blip, fourth quarter 2007 earnings were posting even more dramatic negative growth. With earnings screaming, “Danger, Will Robinson,” it would be disingenuous to say no one saw it coming. Earnings are the principal indication of macro-economic conditions and the paramount guide to proper global market positioning. The signs were there almost a year before the Lehman collapse that sent the markets to the precipice, they were just ignored. Today, we are way past that and despite U.S. markets at record highs they continue to grind higher following ever-higher earnings. There is optimism on the trade talks with China and as expected, inflation eased a bit in August with both CPI and PPI readings coming in lighter than forecasted with core inflation slowing to 2.2% year-over-year (2.7% headline) and the monthly PPI declining for the first time since February 2017. The bottom-line is that markets follow their fundamental earnings growth and should we see earnings growth go negative then “watch out” as this “canary in the coal mine” sings for a bear market. Today we are not even close to this worry. Please see page 6 of the Global Perspectives Book for earnings growth.

Footer content