Groovy Jobs Numbers, Economy Right On, Market Far Out

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Today’s initial jobless claims of 201,000 takes us back to the sixties to find a number so groovy. In addition, the latest economic data points indicate a robust economy that is totally right on. A rebound in the regional Philly Fed index to 22.9 in August was higher than consensus. Existing home sales held steady at 5.34 million annual rate with a welcome bump up in lean inventories. Leading indicators came in at .4, supporting forecasts of a 3% + economy for the first time since 2005. In addition, the moderation of the U.S. dollar is helping to alleviate some of the emerging market angst and long-term yields are moving up for the right reason – growth. Investors are digging it and the market is at all-time highs. However, markets rarely move in a straight line. The trade tariffs, U.S. debt and deficits, emerging market debt, and mid-term elections are just a few of the potential threats to the current vibe. Diversification across asset classes including bonds and a proactive plan to deal with market and economic cycles is always cool. Please read the Global Perspectives Mid-Year outlook for an in-depth look at what is driving markets.

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