The Non-Farm Payrolls Report Was So Good, I Can Hardly Take It…

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A blockbuster payrolls report was simply astounding. The headline, 250,000 jobs in October, blows away expectations but the better news is in the details. Let us start with the participation rate jumping to 62.9%, keeping the unemployment rate at 3.7%. This is my favorite measure because it defies gravity and means people are coming “out of the woodwork” to gain meaningful employment. Then let us review a new development where wages finally increased with a 3-handle (+3.1%) for the first time in over a decade. Rising wages are good for consumers and businesses when offset with rising productivity, that is, the real cost to business is wage increases – productivity increases for a low real wage increase. Finally, this was broad based with an October increase across manufacturing, construction, transportation, healthcare, professional services and leisure. This was a blockbuster indeed and a sure sign of an economic boom.

Please see our latest quarterly outlook “The Economic Boom 10 Years After the 2008 Credit Crisis”.

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