The Economic Outlook Brightens

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Special Guest Blogger: Tim Kearney

Economic data from the United States continues to have a positive look. Of course, there was the blow-out employment data, including a 206,000 print for private payrolls. Average hourly earnings are ticking higher, as is labor force participation. But it doesn’t stop at the labor market, not at all. With trade wars abating, ISM manufacturing PMI jumped above 50 for the first time since July. ISM new orders moved above 50 as well, to the highest level since May 2019. Nonfarm productivity – the key to medium term growth – continues to move higher; albeit still at a relatively low level, it was up 1.8% in 2019 from zero in 2016. Taken together, these data make the outlook a bit brighter.

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