Today's Blog

Main content

Thursday, July 12, 2018
Core and headline inflation remain subdued with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, remaining slightly below target.

Inflation as measured by the CPI, increased to 2.9% year-over-year, the highest pace since June 2012. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.3% year-over-year. The increases were in-line with expectations. The market seems relatively unconcerned about higher inflation for now. After all, there has been speculation for years of runaway price increases, which never came to fruition. In addition, the latest payroll report indicated that there is still some slack in the labor market, the initial unemployment claims for last week dropped back to near a 49 year low and earnings seasons begins this week with expectations for another quarter of another +20% growth in profits. So today economic optimism is overriding trade concerns. The new trade tariffs have not yet significantly impacted the macro economic backdrop. The trade worries are far from over but investors are having a hard time denying the positive fundamentals. The widely followed S&P 500 may only be up 5% but that is certainly not too shabby. And small cap stock returns are well into double digits, illustrating the value of diversification. Yes, trade tensions are a market lemon but there will always be opportunities to make lemonade. Please follow inflation on page 60 of the Global Perspectives Book.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

An almost picture-perfect employment report for June, a drop the mike sort of report. It will not force a change in Fed policy by itself (other issues are in the mix, like trade). Headline outperformed by 18k with the two-month revision +37k. Private payrolls outperformed by 12k with the prior month revised up 11k. Manufacturing was up 36k and positive revisions. How does this sink with The Fed’s model? The unemployment rate up to 4% (was 3.8%) thanks to a rise in labor force participation of 0.2% while hourly earnings tick lower to 2.7%. The likelihood of a December hike continues to be priced in (up now to 59%), but nothing in the data gave running room to an acceleration beyond that, at least thus far. Consensus is tracking a 3+% Q2, followed by about 3% for Q3 and Q4. The Atlanta Fed NowCast in Q3 shows a 3.8% run rate, the NY Fed is at 2.7% while the St. Louis Fed clocks in at 3.3%. May factory orders outperformed (including upward revisions) while durable goods orders also performed well. Things are going well in manufacturing.

An interesting tidbit from Yahoo on the world’s game (soccer): “UK economy boost. England’s unexpected success has delighted fans - leading to a boost for the economy as fans stock up on food, drink and TVs to watch matches on. The match will add £555 million (c. $730mn) of consumer spending to the economy as people stock up on food, drink and memorabilia before Wednesday night’s match, according to The Centre for Retail Research (CRR). If England beats Croatia and makes it into the final, CRR predicts that the World Cup will have boosted spending in the UK by £2.7 billion (c. $3.5bn).” - Special Guest Blogger: Tim Kearney, PhD

Friday, July 6, 2018

Once upon a time, there was a jobs market that was not too hot and not too cold. It was just right. The U.S. economy added an above-expected 213,000 jobs in June. Oh no, this is the 93rd straight month of job gains -the Fed may want to raise rates faster and risk inverting the yield curve. Not so fast. The employment rate ticked up from 3.8% to 4% as 600,000 people entered or re-entered the labor force. Good job opportunities are luring workers back to the market. The biggest gains in jobs added were in professional services, manufacturing and healthcare. The lower paying retail sector lost jobs last month. In addition to a little slack in work force, wage growth was a slight miss. Wages increased .2% or 2.7% year over year. This is below the 3-4% target the Fed would like to see. So, inflation is not huffing and puffing at the door yet. (Oops, wrong fairy tale.) The Fed will be looking at wage growth and the labor participation rate, which inched up to 62.9% as more stable indicators of the employment market. Investors should keep an eye out for the Q2 productivity measures due out in August. If workers can become more productive, the economy can continue to grow rapidly even with the below trend labor participation rate. The surge in private non-residual spending in Q1 (CAPEX) bodes well for a boost in productivity. Please watch Karyn Cavanaugh comment about the labor market and read the Global Perspectives: 2018 Mid-year Outlook – Confident Economy, Cautious Markets .

Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Wide variations in sector returns have generally been the norm; this year information technology and healthcare are the leaders; energy and telecommunications are the laggards.

The first half of 2018 was the best for initial public offerings (IPOs) since 2012 and the second quarter was the busiest since 2015 with no signs of slowing in sight. All of these deals are telling us that the economy is robust, business confidence is high and companies have money to expand. Indeed, the latest PMI Index reading soared to 60.2%, the second highest since the recession, the NFIB small business survey indicates near record level confidence and companies have begun to repatriate the $2 trillion in cash held overseas, returning $217 billion in Q1 alone. The explosive pace of IPO activity provides companies with access to liquid and relatively low cost capital, which will allow them to grow their operations, raise their profile and attract more talented workers and management. IPO’s are positive for investors too. Sure, some IPO’s are duds but the WSJ reported (7/3/2018) that the average stock price of the companies going public in 2018 is trading at 23% above its initial offer price. That’s fireworks compared to the S&P 500 YTD (as of 7/3/2018) return of 3% including dividends. Please review the returns of all the major U.S. stock indices on page 18 of the Global Perspectives Book and have a happy and safe Independence Day.

Friday, June 29, 2018

The first half of 2018 is coming to a close on a note of optimism. Markets are rallying today despite continued trade tensions. Trade is not the only issue dogging investors in 1H 2018. A flat yield curve coupled with anticipated Fed rate hikes, a stronger dollar, rising oil prices and a slowdown in European growth are weighing on investment optimism. On the other hand, tax cuts and deregulation are resulting in a surge in GDP, CAPEX, repatriation of profits, business optimism and record high corporate profits. Meanwhile, North Korea has faded into the background. The negatives make headlines while the positives draw yawns. The trade issues with China run deep and will not be resolved anytime soon. Despite the headlines, U.S. allies agree with the U.S. when it comes to China’s blatantly unfair trade practices. Expect the tug of war between trade and robust fundamentals to play out in the markets during the second half of the year. However, news flash, the fundamentals will eventually prevail. If the trade woes start to significantly impede business, it will show up in the earnings. So far, the stealth economic expansion has been revising earnings up, not down. In 2H 2018, investors should 1. Stop trying to front run the ever-changing potential trade outcomes and let the earnings do the worrying for them and 2. Understand that volatility creates opportunities.

Thursday, June 28, 2018
Crude oil prices have rebounded to over $50/barrel, and gasoline prices have followed suit. Nevertheless, oil consumed per unit of GDP in the U.S. (oil intensity) has declined for many years.

Let’s take a break from trade and address some other investor concerns. Oil prices are the highest since 2014, just in time for summer driving season. Groan. Prices have surged despite OPEC agreeing to ramp up production last week. U.S. sanctions on Iran are the biggest factor in the higher prices but dwindling supplies from Venezuela, concerns about Libya exports and a Canadian supply outage are also applying upward pressure. The demand side of the equation is also favoring higher prices, as economic growth has pushed global consumption to record high levels of more than 99 million barrels a day. The U.S. has certainly ramped up drilling but there are still bottlenecks in the pipeline and refinery logistics chain. Low inventories, supply disruption and robust demand will keep prices high for the short term and through the summer, which is peak driving time as everyone hits the road for vacation. On the other hand, this does have positive implications for equities in the energy sector. Soaring energy company profits have encouraged investors and the energy sector is up more than 14% on the last three months, the best of any S&P 500 sector. Please watch oil prices on page 62 of the Global Perspectives Book and note that the long term average price of oil is about $43/barrel.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Rumors of trade wars are always problematic since they slow growth and capital flows and exacerbate problems. So it is important to see how the world economy is faring as the situation develops. Early PMI prints for the US, France and Germany were below expectations though the Eurozone was spot on. It is important to note that PMIs are still at high levels, well off the lows of 2016. US data have been very strong, but uncertainty generated by trade could hit the rebound’s “animal spirits” channel. The economy seemingly is going from strength to strength: claims edged to near 50-year lows; new home sales were up 6.7% in May and beat the consensus; the LEI rose 6.1% YoY. The upside risk of a 3+% Q2 continues to be mooted with Atlanta Fed GDPNow holding at 4.7%, though the St. Louis Fed is at 3.4% with the New York Fed at a more modest 2.9%. Much on the print will depend on net exports (C + I + G +(X –M)); either way it’s a strong quarter and 4% is not out of the question.

It’s a solid outlook but the direct effects of trade war uncertainty are drag enough. Fed Chair Powell is warning that trade uncertainty is a risk for investment and powerful enough for the Fed to “cause us to question the outlook.” The ECB chief Draghi echoed concern over higher uncertainty hitting the economy. Most straight forward was RBA chief Lowe who warned, “while the tariffs themselves might not derail the global economic recovery, the fallout could be magnified through financial markets,” and “I believe this is happening and is incredibly worrying.” H/T to Dr. Thierry Wizman of Macquarie, who notes that the global auto trade is especially at risk. - Special Guest Blogger: Tim Kearney, PhD

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The trade uncertainty has shifted gears as companies are starting to take actions to mitigate tariff impacts. There is still a myriad of moving pieces but one thing is becoming crystal clear, the Trump Administration is determined to reset the trade relationship with China. Hence the rejection of China’s conciliatory offer in May to import more U.S. goods. Intellectual property rights and joint venture policies are the biggest sticking points. Adding to the already muddy waters, are the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs imposed against our allies – Mexico, Canada and the European Union. These U.S. allies in turn are imposing their own retaliatory tariffs. But that does not mean our allies stand with China. The EU has long had issues with China and their steel dumping, imposing tariffs to combat unfair practices. The tension with U.S. allies is still clouded by noise but the China relationship is a separate issue. China has been a bad actor in the trade arena across the globe. Now, China is beginning to feel the heat. The Shanghai indices are in bear market territory. Last month’s Chinese industrial production, retail sales and investment were all below forecast. And the Chinese Yuan has been losing ground to the dollar which could spur capital outflows. The uncertainty of the trade landscape will slow the economy but it remains to be seen by how much. So far U.S. companies have not been guiding earnings downward (Q2, Q3 and Q4 estimates > 20% growth) and the impact is minimal. As always, diversification can help smooth market bumps. Please see page 4 of the Global Perspectives Book for an example of effective diversification.

Friday, June 22, 2018

In a meeting of OPEC ministers, officials issued a statement boosting production but by much less than anticipated by the market sending WTI Crude Oil prices surging by over five percent. I am not sure how a cartel – which no longer is a monopoly - still has such influence in a global market like crude oil. The U.S.A. is now the swing producer with its massive capacity to drill at a moment’s notice and freedom to export globally. In our mid-year update our 2018 forecast of $60 per barrel will be maintained. Please review our 2018 Forecast and original forecast of $60 per barrel for WTI Crude oil.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018
U.S. consumer confidence hit a five-year high but is still off pre-crisis levels.

The past week has been dominated by policy/political issues, overriding good economic data. On the latter, the U.S. registered a blowout NFIB Optimism reading. Inflation readings were as expected, with real average hourly earnings sub-1%. Export prices are rising smartly (+4.9%) despite the strong USD. Initial unemployment claims are pushing towards the 1968 record low. With unemployment low, household wealth rising and confidence levels brimming, retail sales are outperforming at all levels and up 5.9% YoY. CPI inflation clearly has taken away deflation risk, but the charge up does open the Fed to a risk that they will see inflation rates edge above the FOMC’s comfort zone. Core CPI is now up 2.2% YoY with the six-month change at 2.4% annualized BUT the 3-month change is just 1.6%. Not enough for an aggressive Fed for sure, especially with real average hourly earnings up just 0.3%. The Fed will most likely tread carefully. Please watch lofty consumer confidence levels, so far not impacted by trade tensions, on page 58 of the Global Perspectives book - Special Guest Blogger: Tim Kearney, PhD.

Pages

Footer content