- Developed markets have demonstrated awe-inspiring resilience in the face of emerging market struggles.
- Emerging market currencies are plunging. U.S. monetary policy is partly to blame but the true culprit is China.
- U.S. interest rate hikes are likely to be gradual. Investors who exit bonds may miss income opportunities.
- Energy sector problems cloud the Q2 earnings season. It could be the first quarter of negative growth since Q3 2012.
- Despite China’s recent selloff, keep in mind that volatility may be rewarded.
- In the first half of 2015, the long-running bull market continued to overcome a variety of potential stumbling blocks.
- With ECB stimulus blazing, Europe has been a pleasant surprise this year.
- While the mechanics of policy normalization can test near-term resolve, investors must remain focused on their long-term goals.
- If the bull market that arose out of the Great Recession taught us anything it’s that waiting on the sidelines for a precise entry point is pure — and costly — folly.
- Beginning to normalize the policy rate should actually bolster confidence in the economy and the markets and allow us to once and for all leave the Great Recession behind.
- M&A activity has been red hot in 2015, suggesting confidence in executive boardrooms.
- Earnings surprised mightily to the upside in 1Q, but 2Q expectations remain dim.
- While the math of rising rates discounts financial assets, the growth that prompts the rate hikes should be far more important in sustaining this bull market in the long run.
- April Fools investors with sharp positive reversals in quarterly profits, crude oil prices and European bond yields.
- Oil prices bounce off their lows, providing relief to the energy sector while continuing to be a positive catalyst to consumers.
- California is coming to the realization that “water is the new oil” as farmers and consumers thirst for a solution to the multi-year drought.
- Perennial laggards Europe and Emerging Markets surge in April demonstrating that patience in diversification matters.
- Domestic large cap indexes have lagged as oil prices and dollar strength weigh on giant multinationals.
- The negative impact of normalization has outpaced the expected benefits, a trend likely to be evident in first quarter earnings.
- Earnings in the energy sector are expected to drop precipitously, and the abandonment of new projects could impede future growth.
- Tighter U.S. policy combined with rampant easy money globally may be a game changer for asset allocation strategies.
- February’s rally showed that the market’s most strident bears were overeager in calling the end of this nearly six-year bull run.
- Fourth quarter earnings outpaced expectations that had been ratcheted down sharply in the face of plunging oil prices.
- Massive exposure to large-cap equities could make for a crowded trade should investors look to flee a flagging S&P 500.
- Signs of life in Europe and other non-U.S. markets highlight the importance of broad, global diversification.
- While there’s been no shortage of risks to roil investors here in the new year, it’s more important to focus on ever-growing corporate earnings and adequate diversification.
- Any increase in interest rates during 2015 will be the result of domestic economic strength — which is a good thing.
- The overall net effect of lower oil prices is positive and should help support global economic growth as central banks step up their stimulus efforts.
- If tech sector earnings are any indication, corporate America should be able to navigate around the challenges of a strong dollar.
- Heading into 2015, the global economy is on a sustainable growth trajectory despite rampant volatility from plummeting oil, deflation in Europe and growth concerns in China.
- We’ve built our 2015 forecast employing a multi-faceted framework called TRED that includes four inputs:
- Tectonic Shifts in Energy, Global Trade, Technology, Frontier Markets and Water are broader, unifying trends driving true change.
- Rates — inflation rates, central bank policy rates, discount rates, exchange rates — provide a window into the overall economic health of country, region and global economies.
- Earnings deliver an unbiased view of the strength or weakness of a cross-section of global and domestic companies.
- Diversification enables investors to pursue a thoughtful, considered investment philosophy focused on prudent investment discipline.
- Building wealth is predicated on taking risk, not avoiding it. A reliable and an adaptive approach to assessing that risk on an ongoing basis is essential to developing resilience in the face of potentially volatile markets.
- After weeks of struggles, market strength returned quickly in mid-October.
- The expansion of the BOJ’s quantitative easing program surprised markets and may provide inspiration to central banks in Europe and China.
- As corporate America surges to all-time high EPS, domestic macro conditions continue to improve.
- While Republicans took control of Congress with the midterm elections, policy impact may be minimal.
- While the success of the Fed’s aggressive QE program surprised the markets and the central bank…
- …Europe hasn’t gotten the memo, continuing to dither over the scope of its asset-purchase program as recession and deflation loom.
- Markets across the globe — with the exception of long Treasuries and domestic large cap stocks — were hard hit in the third quarter.
- Though volatility has risen, it remains modest; investors should take this opportunity to broaden their portfolios at more attractive levels.