Weekly Commentary

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Monday, February 23, 2015

Stock markets extended their gains into the third week of February. In the U.S., a holiday-shortened trading week produced solid progress for most equity indices; both the DJIA and S&P 500 established new records, while the Nasdaq closed just 1.9% short of its March 2000 peak. European and Asian bourses posted similar results to establish new multi-year highs. Yield on the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury was volatile, but ultimately higher; it’s risen nearly 50 bps over the past three weeks. Oil prices remained under pressure and finished lower.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

The February rebound in domestic equity markets continued, driving the S&P 500 a new all-time high and the DJIA above 18,000 for the first time in 2015. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks also established a new high-water mark, while the Nasdaq reached levels not seen since 2000. The Treasuries selloff persisted, with yield on the benchmark ten-year closing the week above 2%.

Monday, February 9, 2015

After an abysmal January, U.S. equity markets began February with a surge. Even after a Greek downgrade sparked a modest Friday selloff, both the S&P 500 and DJIA gained more than 3% during the week. A four-day Treasury selloff sent yield on the benchmark ten-year to 1.94%. Oil prices posted their biggest one-week gain since 2011, with the U.S. benchmark closing around $52/barrel.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Markets finished off a difficult month on a sour note, with each of the big-three indexes returning to their losing ways for the week. For January, the DJIA and S&P 500 each shed more than 4%, while the Nasdaq loss was closer to 3%; European equities, in contrast, delivered the best monthly performance in more than three years surging nearly 7%. Yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury fell to as low as 1.65%, the lowest level since May 2013. Crude oil prices climbed after the number of U.S. rigs in operation were reported lower.

Monday, January 26, 2015

In a period dominated by news that the ECB was launching a larger-than-expected QE program in March, domestic equity markets delivered their first positive week of 2015 while many bourses in Europe and Asia were sharply higher. Oil continued to trend lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude prices closing at a six-year low.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

The equity markets’ early-2015 struggles continued, as the big three indexes delivered a third consecutive week of losses despite an impressive Friday rally. Oil continued to trend lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude prices approaching lows not seen since the financial crisis, though a Friday report from the International Energy Agency reducing its non-OPEC supply forecast sparked a small rebound. Yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury fell below 1.7% during the week, the lowest since May 2013, while 30-year yields established new record lows near 2.35%.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Equity markets entered 2015 on a volatile note, posting a series of large gains and losses throughout the first full trading week of the year; despite all the tumult, major domestic indexes ended flattish on the week. Oil prices continued to test new lows during the week, while Treasuries and other safe-haven sovereigns attracted investor interest; yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury fell below 2% for the first time since October.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Equity markets finished 2014 on a quiet note, easing slightly off all-time highs but remaining comfortably in the black for the year. The DJIA has delivered six consecutive positive years, while the S&P 500 capped off its third. Yield on the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury finished the year around 2.2%, well below its end-2013 near 3%. The dollar ended 2014 near 11-year highs against a basket of major currencies. Oil prices, meanwhile, continued to weaken into year-end, leveling near five-year lows as it lost about half its value in the second half of 2014.

Monday, December 29, 2014

The post-FOMC comeback by the equity markets continued last week, sending the DJIA and S&P 500 back to new record highs in time for Christmas. Notably, the DJIA eclipsed 18,000 for the first time, having rallied more than 1,000 points in only five trading days. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro and the yen, while yield on the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury moved higher

Monday, December 22, 2014

Though last week’s drubbing extended into the first few days of the new week, equity markets staged a furious comeback after the Fed on Wednesday reiterated it would take a patient approach to its rate hikes. Oil prices continued to decline but showed some stability near a five-year low around the mid-$50/barrel level. Yield on the benchmark ten-year Treasury approached 2% during the week before rebounding to finish around 2.17%.


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