The Latest Market Commentary From Our Strategists

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Daily Blog

Friday, September 21, 2018
Two scenarios of Returns

Investors have been able to set aside the trade tensions and markets have climbed to historic highs. Those investors sitting on the sidelines may be kicking themselves and thinking they missed the rally. Markets care more about profits than politics and based on earnings growth projections for Q3 (19%), Q4 (17%) and 2019 (10%) the market has room to run. The continued strength of the economic outlook has been mistakenly downplayed. If you are in the market, regular rebalancing to lock in gains by selling your high flyers and buying your now cheaper holdings is always a good idea. If you are close to retirement, you may like what you see on your 401K statement but should always plan for market downturns by being globally diversified and remember that significant downturns in the early years of your retirement can derail your withdrawal strategy, which may extend more than 30 years. That’s where a good advisor can help you devise a plan. Your withdrawals won’t just be affected by market returns. Inflation, interest rates, taxes and liquidity needs will all play into your strategy. Please see page 91 of the Global Perspectives book for an example of two retirement portfolio withdrawal scenarios with markedly different terminal values based on a market downturn in the early years.

Weekly Commentary & Statistics

Monday, September 17, 2018

Stocks around the globe posted gains as strong U.S. data continued to undergird global economic expansion.

Monthly Commentary & Outlook

July 2018

Strong economic news punctuated the first half of the year, yet markets remained mired in struggle. Main Street has been celebrating as the economy has quietly amassed record highs in U.S. wealth, employment and spending.

  • The economy is quietly enjoying a “stealth” economic boom driven by pro-business tax cuts
  • Small business optimism on a “stratospheric trajectory” resulting in robust expansion plans
  • Trade tariff retaliation, rising inflation and a rising U.S. dollar spike global market volatility
  • Strength amidst uncertainty argues for broad global diversification

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