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Thursday, April 19, 2018
The shale oil and gas revolution has made energy cheaper for U.S. manufacturers and spawned many high paying jobs. The recent drop in oil prices has caused the energy sector to cut back.

Oil prices reached $69/barrel and look poised to climb higher. Word on the street is that Saudi officials are targeting $80 or even $100 per barrel. Well, duh. Of course, they want higher prices. They have large fiscal deficits that need to be paid. However, they should be careful what they wish for. Higher prices will further stimulate supply from the U.S. shale producers who are already producing record levels and expected to double their output by 2023. Unfortunately, shale producers are currently running into a traffic jam - insufficient pipelines to move all of the oil they produce. In addition, workers are getting hard to find. However, higher prices will allow them to devote more resources to address these issues. OPEC is no longer calling all the shots. Please follow oil rig count on page 76 of the Global Perspectives Book.
Watch Karyn Cavanaugh's latest appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box as she discusses tax cuts and economic growth.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Despite declining import and export growth, recent GDP growth is reported at a 6.7% annual rate. China is attempting to tame excesses and sidestep a “hard landing”.

While China took a pretty remarkable step to stem the trade war risk by opening its markets by a bit, the follow-on talk that China could respond to tariff and Section 301 threats by weakening their currency has taken on a bit of water. The Treasury issued a report on Friday that recent moves in the CNY are in the right direction for US exporters. It is a fair argument, seeing how the Chinese exchange rate has appreciated by 10% over the past year. However, the OECD estimates that the Purchasing Power Parity value of the exchange rate is CNY 3.55/$ which would mean another 80% appreciation of the Yuan. Therefore, in some sense, devaluation talk is a poke at the U.S. bear – and it is a risky strategy as a sustained devaluation could lead to capital outflows and perhaps even capital controls on China.
Unfortunately, there is a misperception about China’s exchange rate (relative) fix. To wit: a fixed exchange rate is not only monetary policy, it’s the monetary policy rule. Edging away from the fix over the past 20 years is the first step to having a free-floating currency, but that is not something that can be quickly achieved. It’s not even desirous for the Chinese authorities; imagine the impact of a relentless move towards CNY 3.5/$. It will not happen quickly because it cannot happen quickly.
In its report, Treasury spread the commentary beyond the traditional swipe at China. No countries were labeled ‘manipulators’ (a slap at fixed exchange rates in general), but rather were noted for persistent and large surpluses. China was joined by India, Japan, Korea, Germany and Switzerland. Major caveat: the report only focused on trade in goods, though “the US has a surplus in services trade with…including…China, Japan, Korea…Switzerland.” For more on China’s economy, please look at page 49 of the Global Perspectives book.

Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Taxes matter. High U.S. corporate income taxes have spawned a recent wave of tax inversion deals.

Earnings season is shifting into full speed and company earnings calls are crediting the strong global economy, corporate tax cuts and higher interest rates (especially for Financials) for their robust growth in earnings. These earnings are cheering and calming investors. This will be the sixth consecutive quarter of year over year earnings growth and will set the bar high for 2019. However, the effect of the tax cuts is still in its infancy. Sure, 400 companies have announced pay raises but that is just an appetizer. Job creation and business investment to increase productivity and sustainable higher GDP growth are the main course. Monetary policy has kept interest rates low but has created big deficits and done little to juice economic growth. Now fiscal policy is at bat. Big corporations provide big headlines, but keep an eye on the small businesses; they are the backbone of the U.S. economy. Please watch corporate tax rates around the world on page 74 of the Global Perspectives Book. Don’t forget: today is the U.S. tax filing deadline – time to test your powers of deduction.

Friday, April 13, 2018
Wide variations in sector returns have generally been the norm; this year information technology and healthcare are the leaders; energy and telecommunications are the laggards.

Consumer sentiment slipped a little in April because of worries over a trade war with China and the possibility of higher interest rates. However, the reading is still near multi decade highs due to strong employment and higher economic growth as the tax cuts weave their way through the economy. Meanwhile, earnings season is now underway and expectations are high at 18.6% growth. Some of the big banks reported this week and beat estimates, but investors don’t seem to be too impressed yet. Energy sector earnings are once again expected to post the highest year-over-year earnings growth and finally over the last month, have started to see some of the recognition they deserve. Every sector except real estate is forecasting double-digit earnings growth. A solid earnings season is just what this jumpy market needs to calm it down. Historically most market gains occur during earnings season. It’s not luck, it’s fundamentals. Fundamentals drive markets. Happy Friday the 13th and don’t forget to heed the words of Grouch Marx, "A black cat crossing your path signifies that the animal is going somewhere."

Please watch performance by sector on page 18 of the Global Perspectives Book.

Thursday, April 12, 2018
Among workers who reported, total savings and investments — not including their personal residence or defined benefit plans — are far below what they will need to retire.

The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) upped their growth projections for 2018 to above 3% based on the pro-business tax cuts. But the CBO tempered the upbeat forecast with predictions of higher deficits that will impede growth in 2019 and beyond. The higher deficits will be due to tax revenues that will not keep pace with spending increases, as well as higher debt repayment costs. Interest rates have been expected to rise for years now, so an increase in debt service, which is currently 6% of the budget, is not new information. History has shown that lowering taxes generally increases economic activity and hence usually increases revenues. However, after only one quarter the jury is still out on the economic growth that will be provided by cutting taxes. (By the way, the latest information from the IRS indicates the top 20% of earners pay 87% of the taxes in the U.S. and the bottom 60% of earners don’t pay any federal tax.) The elephant in the room that needs to be addressed is spending. Social security and Medicare account for more than 50% of federal budget spending and that obligation keeps accelerating as the U.S. population ages. In 1900, the life expectancy was 47-years-old. When social security was invented in the 1930’s the retirement age was 65 and life expectancy was 61. Social security was not so much of a long-term obligation as it was a going away party or perhaps a long weekend hall pass if you had good genes. No wonder the government was so generous. But now that we easily live 25 or 30 years in retirement, social security is not sustainable in its current form. And even if social security remains intact, it hardly pays for a fun and vibrant retirement. Twenty-five years is a long time. Compare that to any other 25 year time period in your life and ask yourself if you would be happy if during that period, you only had playing internet BINGO, watching Wheel of Fortune and eating dinner at 4:00 pm to keep you busy each day. If that doesn’t motivate you to save for your retirement, nothing will. See page 90 of the Global Perspectives Book for some more motivation.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Despite declining import and export growth, recent GDP growth is reported at a 6.7% annual rate. China is attempting to tame excesses and sidestep a “hard landing”.

Markets continue to be roiled by rumors of a trade war between the USA and China, with the global economy growing - though a bit off the boil from Q4 2017. For his part, Chinese leader Xi took the pot off the boil slightly by a conciliatory speech meaning to open their markets a bit. There had been some speculation that China will respond to tariff and Section 301 threats by weakening their currency. This is a tall order: the CNY has appreciated by 11% since December 2016 to CNY 6.31/$. The OECD estimates that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) value of the exchange rate is CNY 3.55/$, hence a devaluation would reflect swimming against a strong stream. If – and this remains at the level of talk – the Chinese do try devaluation, a 4% cut probably will not be enough to make a major dent. However, if a sustained devaluation becomes real, capital flows would be affected (think the Asia crisis of the late 1990s), potentially bringing on more capital controls. Chinese short-term rates are about 4%, hence requiring quite a rate cut.

In the high-inflation 1970’s, the concept of ‘bond market vigilantes’ was born where the bond market punished the Fed when its policies were too easy (and vice versa). Over the past few weeks, we have seen the growth of stock market vigilantes, where the market is clearly sensitive to the risk arising from trade wars. Clearly, markets will remain on edge, given that pronouncements from DC are not forecastable, nor are WTO decisions nor actions from China or third parties. Until markets can get some visibility on this issue, measures/counter measures and the like, continue to expect volatility, undergirded by a strengthening global economy and positive market fundamentals.

To see how China’s economy has fared over the past 7 years, please look at page 49 of the Global Perspectives book.

Friday, April 6, 2018
Total payrolls, including all non-farm employment, have inched steadily upward with private job creation leading the way.

The headline non-farms payroll report was slightly disappointing this morning. Only 103,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in March after a blockbuster February of 326,000. The manufacturing, professional services, education and healthcare sectors were the winners and construction and retail were the losers. However, the strong labor market trend is solidly intact and modest wage gains of .3% were in line with expectations. Investors remain focused on trade concerns and China’s latest reactions to the U.S. proposed tariffs. Throughout all the market volatility, the Fed has been relatively silent. The Fed is no longer the market backstop, prepared to jump in when needed, when markets get wobbly. The market has been unleashed and investors are attempting to find their sea legs. The economy has also been unleashed – in a positive manner with pro-growth tax and regulation cuts. It is now up to both the economy and market to live or die by the sword of capitalism. Please watch the robust job creation trends on page 63 of the Global Perspectives book. Please check out our latest Quarterly Commentary: The Economy and Markets Unleashed in 2018.

Thursday, April 5, 2018
Economic growth fuels demand for imports, aggravating the trade deficit, which plummeted in the great recession as demand dwindled. Exports have faced headwinds even as the U.S. dollar has weakened.

How much trade deficit is too much trade deficit? It is difficult - if not impossible - to pinpoint the "correct" balance of trade. Today's trade report shows that the U.S. deficit got deeper, continuing a six-month trend. Exports grew but imports grew more. The relatively weaker dollar has helped exports. However, the accelerating economic growth in the U.S. coupled with tax cuts have given consumers more disposable income to spend. And U.S. consumers like to buy stuff from China. What most media outlets fail to report is that the U.S. has a trade surplus in services with China and the overall exports to China from the U.S. have grown over 500 percent from 2001-2016, the fastest of any export partner. Yes, some of China's trade policies need to be addressed. And if these negotiations succeed, U.S. business will be better off. However, it still may be a deficit. Please follow trade on page 46 of the Global Perspectives book.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Projected market volatility spikes in times of crisis then drops as fears subside. Current levels are below average, but the Fed’s path to normalization of rates may lead to more typical volatility levels.

If these normal market ‘ups and downs’ are keeping you up at night, it may help if you jump into your time machine and take a look at some prior bouts of serious volatility, not the normal volatility we are experiencing currently. Over the last 50 years, the most volatile swings in the market occurred in 1987 and 2008. Those were indeed unsettled times but note that the very worst days were often within a week of the very best days. In addition, if you missed just the 30 best days over the last 50 years by being out of the market, hiding out on the sidelines in cash, your returns would have suffered significantly. Today the market is worried about a potential trade war and pricing in the worst-case scenario. So far, these proposed tariffs hardly constitute a war. However, all wars end with negotiation and some may argue that we have already been engaged in a trade war with China and this is part of the negotiation. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy remains robust and the latest ADP report shows another 231K jobs were added to the economy last month. Diversification, as always, can help to smooth market bumps. Please see page 26 of the Global Perspectives book for more on market volatility.

Tuesday, April 3, 2018
The Fed funds target rate and Treasury yields remain historically low, even though the Fed increased the target rate in December 2016.

There are so many strategists and media moguls talking about the flattening of the yield curve that I feel compelled to straighten a few things out. No one is worried about the 10-year UST yield minus the 2-year UST yield per se. What they are worried about is if these two points on the yield curve invert. When it inverts or goes negative, it is a powerful predictor of a recession. In January 2000, the 10-year was 6.61% and the 2-year was higher at 6.63% or inverted yield curve signaling the impending bear market. In January 2007, the 10-year was 4.99% and the 2-year was higher at 5.00% or inverted yield curve signaling the impending bear market - aka the “Great Recession.” So it is ominous, but “this time it’s different." I put that in quotes because that tends to be the death knell of an analyst not respecting history. Regardless, I am sticking to it because of all of the positives. First of all we went about eight years at zero Fed Funds rate and we are now getting “back to normal.” That is good news, very good news. The 2-year yield has moved up in concert with this market normalization, albeit slightly higher. The 10-year yield had been in a downward trajectory for a couple years from 3% at the end of 2013 to 1.36% in July 2016. This 1.36% - the lowest in history - was indicative disinflation, recession or even depression. That the 10-year yield is a robust 2.77% today is a signal that Armageddon is far, far away. Yields this high are indicative of GDP growth hovering at around 3%, which is higher than the previous Administration’s entire two-term presidency. In other words, focus on the level of interest rates more than whether the yield curve is flat. The outlook for growth has not been this good in over a decade. Please review slide 34 of the Global Perspectives book entitled - Fed Funds Target Rates and U.S. Treasury Yields.

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