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Monthly Commentary

March 2015
  • February’s rally showed that the market’s most strident bears were overeager in calling the end of this nearly six-year bull run.
  • Fourth quarter earnings outpaced expectations that had been ratcheted down sharply in the face of plunging oil prices.
  • Massive exposure to large-cap equities could make for a crowded trade should investors look to flee a flagging S&P 500.
  • Signs of life in Europe and other non-U.S. markets highlight the importance of broad, global diversification.
February 2015
  • While there’s been no shortage of risks to roil investors here in the new year, it’s more important to focus on ever-growing corporate earnings and adequate diversification.
  • Any increase in interest rates during 2015 will be the result of domestic economic strength — which is a good thing.
  • The overall net effect of lower oil prices is positive and should help support global economic growth as central banks step up their stimulus efforts.
  • If tech sector earnings are any indication, corporate America should be able to navigate around the challenges of a strong dollar.
December 2014
  • Heading into 2015, the global economy is on a sustainable growth trajectory despite rampant volatility from plummeting oil, deflation in Europe and growth concerns in China.
  • We’ve built our 2015 forecast employing a multi-faceted framework called TRED that includes four inputs:
    • Tectonic Shifts in Energy, Global Trade, Technology, Frontier Markets and Water are broader, unifying trends driving true change.
    • Rates — inflation rates, central bank policy rates, discount rates, exchange rates — provide a window into the overall economic health of country, region and global economies.
    • Earnings deliver an unbiased view of the strength or weakness of a cross-section of global and domestic companies.
    • Diversification enables investors to pursue a thoughtful, considered investment philosophy focused on prudent investment discipline.
  • Building wealth is predicated on taking risk, not avoiding it. A reliable and an adaptive approach to assessing that risk on an ongoing basis is essential to developing resilience in the face of potentially volatile markets.

November 2014
  • After weeks of struggles, market strength returned quickly in mid-October.
  • The expansion of the BOJ’s quantitative easing program surprised markets and may provide inspiration to central banks in Europe and China.
  • As corporate America surges to all-time high EPS, domestic macro conditions continue to improve.
  • While Republicans took control of Congress with the midterm elections, policy impact may be minimal.

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