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Monthly Commentary

July 2015
    • In the first half of 2015, the long-running bull market continued to overcome a variety of potential stumbling blocks.
    • With ECB stimulus blazing, Europe has been a pleasant surprise this year.
    • While the mechanics of policy normalization can test near-term resolve, investors must remain focused on their long-term goals.
    • If the bull market that arose out of the Great Recession taught us anything it’s that waiting on the sidelines for a precise entry point is pure — and costly — folly.

 

June 2015
  • Beginning to normalize the policy rate should actually bolster confidence in the economy and the markets and allow us to once and for all leave the Great Recession behind.
  • M&A activity has been red hot in 2015, suggesting confidence in executive boardrooms.
  • Earnings surprised mightily to the upside in 1Q, but 2Q expectations remain dim.
  • While the math of rising rates discounts financial assets, the growth that prompts the rate hikes should be far more important in sustaining this bull market in the long run.
May 2015
  • April Fools investors with sharp positive reversals in quarterly profits, crude oil prices and European bond yields.
  • Oil prices bounce off their lows, providing relief to the energy sector while continuing to be a positive catalyst to consumers.
  • California is coming to the realization that “water is the new oil” as farmers and consumers thirst for a solution to the multi-year drought.
  • Perennial laggards Europe and Emerging Markets surge in April demonstrating that patience in diversification matters.
April 2015
  • Domestic large cap indexes have lagged as oil prices and dollar strength weigh on giant multinationals.
  • The negative impact of normalization has outpaced the expected benefits, a trend likely to be evident in first quarter earnings.
  • Earnings in the energy sector are expected to drop precipitously, and the abandonment of new projects could impede future growth.
  • Tighter U.S. policy combined with rampant easy money globally may be a game changer for asset allocation strategies.

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