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Monthly Commentary

May 2015
  • April Fools investors with sharp positive reversals in quarterly profits, crude oil prices and European bond yields.
  • Oil prices bounce off their lows, providing relief to the energy sector while continuing to be a positive catalyst to consumers.
  • California is coming to the realization that “water is the new oil” as farmers and consumers thirst for a solution to the multi-year drought.
  • Perennial laggards Europe and Emerging Markets surge in April demonstrating that patience in diversification matters.
April 2015
  • Domestic large cap indexes have lagged as oil prices and dollar strength weigh on giant multinationals.
  • The negative impact of normalization has outpaced the expected benefits, a trend likely to be evident in first quarter earnings.
  • Earnings in the energy sector are expected to drop precipitously, and the abandonment of new projects could impede future growth.
  • Tighter U.S. policy combined with rampant easy money globally may be a game changer for asset allocation strategies.
March 2015
  • February’s rally showed that the market’s most strident bears were overeager in calling the end of this nearly six-year bull run.
  • Fourth quarter earnings outpaced expectations that had been ratcheted down sharply in the face of plunging oil prices.
  • Massive exposure to large-cap equities could make for a crowded trade should investors look to flee a flagging S&P 500.
  • Signs of life in Europe and other non-U.S. markets highlight the importance of broad, global diversification.

February 2015
  • While there’s been no shortage of risks to roil investors here in the new year, it’s more important to focus on ever-growing corporate earnings and adequate diversification.
  • Any increase in interest rates during 2015 will be the result of domestic economic strength — which is a good thing.
  • The overall net effect of lower oil prices is positive and should help support global economic growth as central banks step up their stimulus efforts.
  • If tech sector earnings are any indication, corporate America should be able to navigate around the challenges of a strong dollar.

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